Launch weather briefing
Electron · The Mountain God Rises (iQPS Launch 10)
Launch status: Go for launchRocket Lab · Mahia LC-1B · Saturday November 14 2026, 05:30:00 UTC
Liftoff in
The call · at T-0 (forecast)
Weather: GOGood chance the weather cooperates
Weather GO 99% · likely range 89–100% · Short range
Calibrated model (fitted on 10 launches)
issued 22:48 NZDT · next update ~23:03 NZDT
Partial data: Upper-air winds from Open-Meteo (no BUFKIT sounding at Mahia LC-1B) · No station report; the surface reading is a model nowcast
- 8 estimated
- 2 not measurable
- 1 no data
What could stop it
No launch rules are near their limits.
The hours before T-0 & slips
Steady through the hours before T-0 (99%)
If it slips (rough · same forecast run):+24 h99%+48 h99%
- 12:30: Weather GO 99% (GO)
- 13:15: Weather GO 99% (GO)
- 14:00: Weather GO 99% (GO)
- 14:45: Weather GO 99% (GO)
- 15:30: Weather GO 99% (GO)
- 16:15: Weather GO 99% (GO)
- 17:00: Weather GO 99% (GO)
- 17:45: Weather GO 99% (GO)
- 18:30: Weather GO 99% (GO)
Weather GO at each moment, from the same forecast as the call.
How the odds have moved
Holding near 99% GO for 8 hours
- Thu 15:13 NZDT: 99% GO
- Thu 22:50 NZDT: 99% GO
Every Weather GO the Weather Center showed for this launch, as it showed it. A gap means the number was held back; a dashed line, the NET moved or the model was updated.
The rules
8 of 11 launch rules OK, 3 can't be read
No data: 1 rule
- Thick cloud layerslimit 4,500 ftClimbing through thick cloud can trigger lightning.no data
Not measurable: 2 rules
- Smoke—Clouds formed by smoke can carry charge (not measurable publicly yet).not measurable
- Electric field at the padlimit 1,500 V/mRange sensors measure charge overhead; the data isn't public.not measurable
OK: 8 rules
- Towering clouds0 J/kg / 2,000 J/kg limitFlying near building storm clouds can trigger lightning.estimated
- Storm anvils—The flat tops of thunderstorms carry electric charge.estimated
- Storm anvils (detached)—The flat tops of thunderstorms carry electric charge.estimated
- Lightning nearby—Recent strikes nearby mean waiting.estimated
- Showers in the flight path12% / 70% limitRain clouds along the climb can hold charge.estimated
- Static in high cloud—Ice clouds can build static on the vehicle.estimated
- Winds high up0.0046 /s / 0.04 /s limitSharp changes of wind with height stress the rocket in flight.estimated
- Wind at the pad9.7 kt / 25 kt limitSteady wind must stay under this rocket's limit.estimated
Hour by hour around T-0
Rain chances ease after T-0, from 50%
| Hour | 12:00 | 13:00 | 14:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 17:00 | T-0, 18:00 | 19:00 | 20:00 | 21:00 | 22:00 | 23:00 | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky | Mostly cloudy | Overcast | Partly cloudy | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear |
| Temp | 20°C | 21°C | 21°C | 21°C | 20°C | 19°C | 18°C | 18°C | 17°C | 16°C | 16°C | 16°C | 15°C |
| Wind | S 6 km/hgusts 20 | SE 6 km/hgusts 22 | ESE 11 km/hgusts 28 | E 15 km/hgusts 35 | ENE 17 km/hgusts 39 | ENE 19 km/hgusts 41 | NE 19 km/hgusts 41 | NE 19 km/hgusts 39 | NE 19 km/hgusts 37 | NE 19 km/hgusts 37 | NE 15 km/hgusts 37 | NNE 6 km/hgusts 28 | NW 6 km/hgusts 13 |
| Rain | 38% | 49% | 50% | 45% | 37% | 26% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Will you see it?
Excellent: clear viewing — full liftoff and ascent visible
- Cloud cover 5%
- Ground visibility 43 km
- Worth the trip
From the forecast at T-0 near the pad. Twilight launch? Jellyfish outlook →
Who's forecasting
Never averaged
- MaxQ model99% GO, GOat T-0 · issued 22:48 NZDT
Other forecasters' numbers are shown as published, in plain ink: never averaged with ours or drawn in our dial.