Launch weather briefing
Falcon 9 · Starlink Group 15-16
Launch status: Go for launchSpaceX · SLC-4E, Vandenberg · Monday October 26 2026, 05:00:00 UTC
Liftoff in
The call · at T-0 (forecast)
Weather: GOGood chance the weather cooperates
Weather GO 95% · likely range 83–100% · Early look
Calibrated model (fitted on 52 launches)
issued 05:13 PDT · next update ~05:43 PDT
Forecasts this far out move a lot
- 1 forecast
- 11 estimated
- 2 not measurable
What could stop it
No launch rules are near their limits.
Window & slips
Steady across the window (95%)
If it slips (rough · same forecast run):+24 h95%+48 h95%
- 22:00: Weather GO 95% (GO), best slot
- 22:30: Weather GO 95% (GO)
- 23:00: Weather GO 95% (GO)
- 23:30: Weather GO 95% (GO)
- 00:00: Weather GO 95% (GO)
- 00:30: Weather GO 95% (GO)
- 01:00: Weather GO 95% (GO)
- 01:30: Weather GO 95% (GO)
- 02:00: Weather GO 95% (GO)
Weather GO at each moment, from the same forecast as the call.
The rules
12 of 14 launch rules OK, 2 can't be read
Not measurable: 2 rules
- Smoke—Clouds formed by smoke can carry charge (not measurable publicly yet).not measurable
- Electric field at the padlimit 1,500 V/mRange sensors measure charge overhead; the data isn't public.not measurable
OK: 12 rules
- Towering clouds0 J/kg / 2,000 J/kg limitFlying near building storm clouds can trigger lightning.estimated
- Storm anvils—The flat tops of thunderstorms carry electric charge.estimated
- Storm anvils (detached)—The flat tops of thunderstorms carry electric charge.estimated
- Lightning nearby—Recent strikes nearby mean waiting.estimated
- Thick cloud layers—Climbing through thick cloud can trigger lightning.estimated
- Showers in the flight path0% / 70% limitRain clouds along the climb can hold charge.estimated
- Static in high cloud—Ice clouds can build static on the vehicle.estimated
- Winds high up0.0071 /s / 0.04 /s limitSharp changes of wind with height stress the rocket in flight.estimated
- Wind at the pad5 kt / 30 kt limitSteady wind must stay under this rocket's limit.forecast
- Gusts at the pad6 kt / 35 kt limitSudden gusts load the rocket on the pad and at liftoff.estimated
- Too cold60°F / 38°F limitPropellants and seals have temperature limits.estimated
- Too hot60°F / 100°F limitPropellants and seals have temperature limits.estimated
Shown, not in the odds
- Seas at the landing zone4.7 ft / 8 ft limitAffects booster recovery only. Not part of the launch odds.
Hour by hour around T-0
Partly cloudy and dry around T-0
| Hour | 16:00 | 17:00 | 18:00 | 19:00 | 20:00 | 21:00 | T-0, 22:00 | 23:00 | 00:00 | 01:00 | 02:00 | 03:00 | 04:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky | Partly cloudy | Partly cloudy | Partly cloudy | Partly cloudy | Partly cloudy | Partly cloudy | Partly cloudy | Partly cloudy | Partly cloudy | Partly cloudy | Partly cloudy | Partly cloudy | Partly cloudy |
| Temp | 19°C | 19°C | 18°C | 17°C | 17°C | 16°C | 16°C | 15°C | 14°C | 14°C | 14°C | 14°C | 14°C |
| Wind | NNW 13 km/hgusts 15 | NW 11 km/hgusts 13 | NW 11 km/hgusts 13 | NW 11 km/hgusts 13 | NNW 9 km/hgusts 11 | NNW 9 km/hgusts 11 | NNW 9 km/hgusts 11 | NNW 7 km/hgusts 9 | NNW 7 km/hgusts 9 | NNW 7 km/hgusts 9 | N 7 km/hgusts 9 | N 7 km/hgusts 9 | N 7 km/hgusts 9 |
| Rain | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Will you see it?
Good: good viewing — ascent tracking should hold through the deck
- Cloud cover 44%
- Ground visibility 24 km
- Worth the trip
From the forecast at T-0 near the pad. Twilight launch? Jellyfish outlook →
Who's forecasting
Never averaged
- MaxQ model95% GO, GOat T-0 · issued 05:13 PDT
- Official range forecast—No official forecast recorded for this launch yet
Other forecasters' numbers are shown as published, in plain ink: never averaged with ours or drawn in our dial.